R.001
2026
Military Procurement and Spatial Structural Change: The Long-Run Effects of the US Civil War[ JMP ]
AEA - 2026 , UEA - 2026 (Student Prize (Finalist))
Abstract
This paper studies whether a temporary government procurement program can have permanent effects on regional industrialization. Specifically, I examine the Quartermaster sites through which the Union Army procured general manufactured goods during the U.S. Civil War, placed for wartime logistical reasons and dismantled when the war ended. Procurement had large and persistent effects on the host counties: by 1890 they had 66 percent more manufacturing employment and a population 19 percent larger than comparable counties, and the gap persisted for more than a century after the sites closed. The expansion came through new establishments and new industries rather than larger plants, and made the counties less dependent on farming. Narrowly specialized Ordnance sites show no such persistence. The evidence points to a capability rather than demand: a quantitative spatial model in which procurement raised a county's rate of adopting new techniques matches the paths, and implies that the war raised Union real income 6.4 percent by 1950.