R.001
2026
Military Procurement and Spatial Development: The Long-Run Effects of the U.S. Civil War[ JMP ]
ConferencesNortheast Universities Development Consortium (NEUDC) Conference, 2026*New Thinking in Industrial Policy, Columbia University, 2026*Social Science History Association (SSHA) Annual Meeting, 2026*North American Meeting of the Urban Economics Association (UEA), 2026 — Student Prize FinalistAmerican Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, 2026Resek Conference, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, 2025* Scheduled
Abstract
This paper studies the long-term impacts of a large temporary demand shock on regional industrialization. I examine the Quartermaster sites through which the Union Army procured general manufactured goods during the U.S. Civil War, placed for wartime logistical reasons and dismantled when the war ended. Procurement had large and persistent effects on the host counties. Relative to comparison counties, by 1890 the QM counties had 66 percent more manufacturing employment and a population 19 percent larger. The manufacturing lead persisted until the 1960s and then declined with the national contraction of manufacturing, while the population lead persisted. The expansion came through the persistent adoption of new industries, and counties became less farm-dependent earlier. A quantitative spatial model in which procurement raised a county’s rate of adopting new techniques rationalizes the empirical findings and implies that procurement raised Union real income per worker by 5.9 percent by 1940.